Brutal Week 4 at 2-3…..need to change strategy and start riding the underdogs a bit more!

Week 5……….Here we go!

Tenn +3.5:  I’m really just grabbing a number here.  This game should probably be 3 and getting that hook does it for me.  Titans rank higher in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and Titans have been pretty strong against QBs all season.  Miami HFA isn’t much.  Titans are the side here with that ½ point on my side.

Chicago +4.5:  This is one of my strongest leans of the week.   Indy is coming off of their London week and the travel must take its toll.  First team ever to not have a BYE after a London game.  Bears rank higher in overall DVOA, Yards per Play Differential, and they’ve been pretty solid against QBs all year. Combine with the fact that Chicago has had the 6^th toughest schedule to date….Da Bears!

Buff +2: My favorite game of the week!   DVOA favors Buffalo #10 vs Rams #24.  Sagarin has it #8 (Bills) vs #18 (Rams).  On a neutral field this game would be PK.  Pinnacle down to a PK on this game meaning sharp money pouring in on Sexy Rexy.  Bills are the better team……and by a longshot!

San Diego +3.5: Chargers could very easily be 4-0 and Raiders could very easily be 1-3.  Chargers have been in the top 1/3 of teams at stopping opponent’s QBs this year, and have played a much tougher schedule. Massey-Peabody even ranks the Chargers 3 spots higher than Raiders in their power rankings.  At 3 I might not touch this game, but at 3.5 I’m all over the Lightning Bolts!

Cinci -1: My one favorite of the week.  Pinnacle is down to -2 so sharps like Bengals as well.  Cinci is coming off 10 days rest and Prescott has yet to see a defense like the Bengals this year.  HFA in Dallas isn’t great.  What really sold me was strength of schedules through 4 weeks - Bengals #1 and Cowboys #32.   Massey-Peabody Power Ranks have Cinci #6 and Dallas #21.