Brutal Week 4 at 2-3…..need to change strategy and start riding the underdogs a bit more!

Week 5……….Here we go!

Tenn +3.5:  I’m really just grabbing a number here.  This game should probably be 3 and getting that hook does it for me.  Titans rank higher in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and Titans have been pretty strong against QBs all season.  Miami HFA isn’t much.  Titans are the side here with that ½ point on my side.

Chicago +4.5:  This is one of my strongest leans of the week.   Indy is coming off of their London week and the travel must take its toll.  First team ever to not have a BYE after a London game.  Bears rank higher in overall DVOA, Yards per Play Differential, and they’ve been pretty solid against QBs all year. Combine with the fact that Chicago has had the 6^th toughest schedule to date….Da Bears!

Buff +2: My favorite game of the week!   DVOA favors Buffalo #10 vs Rams #24.  Sagarin has it #8 (Bills) vs #18 (Rams).  On a neutral field this game would be PK.  Pinnacle down to a PK on this game meaning sharp money pouring in on Sexy Rexy.  Bills are the better team……and by a longshot!

San Diego +3.5: Chargers could very easily be 4-0 and Raiders could very easily be 1-3.  Chargers have been in the top 1/3 of teams at stopping opponent’s QBs this year, and have played a much tougher schedule. Massey-Peabody even ranks the Chargers 3 spots higher than Raiders in their power rankings.  At 3 I might not touch this game, but at 3.5 I’m all over the Lightning Bolts!

Cinci -1: My one favorite of the week.  Pinnacle is down to -2 so sharps like Bengals as well.  Cinci is coming off 10 days rest and Prescott has yet to see a defense like the Bengals this year.  HFA in Dallas isn’t great.  What really sold me was strength of schedules through 4 weeks - Bengals #1 and Cowboys #32.   Massey-Peabody Power Ranks have Cinci #6 and Dallas #21. 

Well – a crappy Week #3 at 1-4.  I cannot believe the Lighting Bolts choked that game away! 

 7-8 this year through Week #3 using the 5 weekly Supercontest lines………….

 Week #4

 Jax +2.5: 65% of the money has come in on Indy, and I like to be contrarian.  Jax is used to that London travel year after year and Indy is not.  The field in London usually has pretty thick grass and Indy and Andrew Luck are not good on the road on grass.  Yards Per Play Differential – Jax #17 and Indy #30.  I think this game should be a PK.  And I think Jaguars win this game outright.

 New England -5.5:  This line has moved to -7.5 now that Jimmy G has been confirmed as QB for Pats.  So already have 2 points of line value from the stale Wed line.   Pats coming off extra rest with the Thursday game in Week 3, and Buffalo will have a bit of a letdown after that big win over Cards.  I think Pats win by 10……….so 5.5 is a value.

 Jets +2.5: Love the Home Dog here!  Bottom line - Russell Wilson is banged up, his offensive line is crap, and the Jets have a stellar D line.   Jets had 8 turnovers in Week 3, and no team is as bad as their last showing.   Seattle has a bye in Week 5, so why risk Wilson in this spot.  Jets win outright.

 

Carolina -3: Jeez this is a Square Pick.  But Falcons haven’t played a single defense all season (TB, Oak, Nola) that is better than my local High School team – Go Diablos!   Carolina had tough games vs. the 2 best defenses in the league (Den and Minn) but dropped 46 on SFO.  Atlanta ranks dead last in the NFL in Defensive DVOA – and the Panthers are going to pound them, even with ATL at home.  Panthers win by two touchdowns and easily cover the 3.  

 

Steelers -5.5: Another Square Pick – but hey, Squares are right 45% of the time and they’ll be right here this week as well.   The Steelers defense has struggled but the KC offense is extremely mediocre at best.  Le’Veon Bell is back this week and the Steelers are going to want to make a statement after that blowout loss to the Eagles last week.  Pitt wins by a touchdown….maybe more. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Through two weeks picking games for the biggest NFL handicapping tournament in the world, The Westgate Supercontest: Record is 6-4.  I was 4-1 in week 1 but 2-3 in Week 2..........Currently 60% ATS and tied for 323rd place out of 1,854 Entries. 

Week 3 Picks:

Tenn -1.5 vs. Oakland: Oakland has given up 500 yards per game in the first two weeks.  They rank dead last in the NFL in YPPA (Yards Per Pass Attempt) Differential.  2/3 of the public money is on Oakland, but rumor is Sharp Bettors have been betting Tenn.  Titans defense has been good the first 2 weeks, and should be no problem moving the ball on the Raiders pathetic D. 

Denver +3.5 vs Cinci.   You're going to give me the defending Superbowl Champs and give me the 1/2 point hook?  Sign me up all day long!  Denver #2 in NFL in YPPA differential and we know that Dalton might be a tad banged up after playing a very physical Pitt team last week. I think Denver is the better team and getting that hook just reconfirms this pick!

Giants -4.5 vs. Washington:  Giants are the #1 NFL team in YPPA differential and they've been much better than their stats show.  There is a lot of randomness to turnovers, and the Giants had 3 in week 2 yet still won the game.  But what's really solid about the Giants this year is their defense - which should have no problem shutting down the Skins offense.  Giants could easily win this game by two touchdowns. 

San Diego +3 vs Indy:  The Wednesday line was +3, 56% of the public money is on the Colts, but Pinnacle Sportsbook (the sharpest book out there) is down to +1 which tells me the professional money is coming in on the Chargers.   The Indy defense is absolutely pathetic - maybe along with Oakland the worst in the NFL - and even though Rivers is down a few of his favorite targets, he always seems to make it work with what he has when it comes to the passing game.  San Diego should absolutely be 2-0 this season and is simply the better team here - so I'll take the 3.

Chicago +7.5 vs. Dallas:  The look ahead line (posted before last weekend's games) was Dallas -2.  Now it's Dallas -7.5?   Yes, the Bears did not look good on Monday night and have some injuries on defense.  And we know Cutler is out, but I think Hoyer might actually be an upgrade.  This would be a huge overreaction even at a 7 point spread, but I get that 1/2 point hook too?    Not to mention Dallas will have a QB making his first primetime start on Sunday night?  YPPA Differential (you can tell it's one of my favorite stats!) is Bears at #7 and Cowboys #22.  Da Bears!