Through two weeks picking games for the biggest NFL handicapping tournament in the world, The Westgate Supercontest: Record is 6-4.  I was 4-1 in week 1 but 2-3 in Week 2..........Currently 60% ATS and tied for 323rd place out of 1,854 Entries. 

Week 3 Picks:

Tenn -1.5 vs. Oakland: Oakland has given up 500 yards per game in the first two weeks.  They rank dead last in the NFL in YPPA (Yards Per Pass Attempt) Differential.  2/3 of the public money is on Oakland, but rumor is Sharp Bettors have been betting Tenn.  Titans defense has been good the first 2 weeks, and should be no problem moving the ball on the Raiders pathetic D. 

Denver +3.5 vs Cinci.   You're going to give me the defending Superbowl Champs and give me the 1/2 point hook?  Sign me up all day long!  Denver #2 in NFL in YPPA differential and we know that Dalton might be a tad banged up after playing a very physical Pitt team last week. I think Denver is the better team and getting that hook just reconfirms this pick!

Giants -4.5 vs. Washington:  Giants are the #1 NFL team in YPPA differential and they've been much better than their stats show.  There is a lot of randomness to turnovers, and the Giants had 3 in week 2 yet still won the game.  But what's really solid about the Giants this year is their defense - which should have no problem shutting down the Skins offense.  Giants could easily win this game by two touchdowns. 

San Diego +3 vs Indy:  The Wednesday line was +3, 56% of the public money is on the Colts, but Pinnacle Sportsbook (the sharpest book out there) is down to +1 which tells me the professional money is coming in on the Chargers.   The Indy defense is absolutely pathetic - maybe along with Oakland the worst in the NFL - and even though Rivers is down a few of his favorite targets, he always seems to make it work with what he has when it comes to the passing game.  San Diego should absolutely be 2-0 this season and is simply the better team here - so I'll take the 3.

Chicago +7.5 vs. Dallas:  The look ahead line (posted before last weekend's games) was Dallas -2.  Now it's Dallas -7.5?   Yes, the Bears did not look good on Monday night and have some injuries on defense.  And we know Cutler is out, but I think Hoyer might actually be an upgrade.  This would be a huge overreaction even at a 7 point spread, but I get that 1/2 point hook too?    Not to mention Dallas will have a QB making his first primetime start on Sunday night?  YPPA Differential (you can tell it's one of my favorite stats!) is Bears at #7 and Cowboys #22.  Da Bears!